SCO SUMMIT - UPCOMING - PROBABLE OUT COMES
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hosting the virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) today, which is likely to see the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The meeting comes at a crucial time, with India’s ties with neighbours Pakistan and China tense and war raging in Europe.
India is hosting the SCO meeting, which Putin is expected to attend, as the Russia-Ukraine war drags on. What is the significance of the meeting at such a time?
We can look at the significance of the meeting from the point of view of India as well as Russia.
As far as Russia is concerned, I think President Putin will be able to see that the influence and the relevance of Russia has declined because of the war. This was apparent at the last SCO meeting in Samarkand in September 2022 too, and I think 10 months down the line, Putin will be able to see that for the Central Asian countries, Russia’s importance has come down further. This will send the message to him that possibly the war needs to be brought to a close as quickly as possible.
From the point of view of India, we’ve just had a very successful visit by the Prime Minister to the United States. The India-US relationship has been growing for the last 20 plus years, but this was sort of a watershed moment in taking the relationship forward. And the fact that India can have such strong positive relations with the United States, and also be part of the SCO, really speaks about India’s strategic autonomy, and self-assuredness.
At the last SCO meeting in Samarkand, PM Modi had told Putin “this is not the era of war”. What impact would you say the statement has had? What is the way ahead?
It also sent out a very strong message that India is a voice that is listened to not only in the West, but also by Putin. As far as voices from the West are concerned, they were not in a position to reach out to Putin, because there is so much polarisation between Russia and the West. So here, PM Modi’s voice came as a voice of reason which could articulate the sentiments of the rest of the world to Putin.
Xi is likely to participate in this meeting, three years after the Galwan clash and months ahead of his visit to India for the G20 summit. Could this meeting have any bearing on either of these two things?
As far as the border standoff is concerned, I feel this meeting is unlikely to have any impact whatsoever, because it’s not as if the two sides have not been in contact with each other. India and China have held regular and multiple rounds of talks, and China has been unwilling to relent as far as de-escalation and disengagement in some key areas is concerned. . Some progress has been made on some issues but the issue of standoff at Depsang and Demchok remain unresolved.
Pak PM Sharif is likely to participate in the meeting. At the SCO foreign ministers’ meet in Goa, India had taken a hard line on cross-border terrorism. Is the issue likely to feature in a big way again?
However, fighting terrorism is one of the original mandates of the SCO. The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) is a permanent organ of the SCO. Also, at the foreign ministers’ meeting in May, EAM Jaishankar had said that in addition to the New Delhi declaration, we will have another document on de-radicalisation.
The Central Asian countries have traditionally been considered Russia’s backyard. But now, China is trying to expand its footprint in the region. How do you see them responding to this battle of influence between Moscow and Beijing?
When Russia said last September that it was going to annex Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, Kazakhstan had said that it would not support that decision. This is the position of the other Central Asian countries. So I think it is quite clear that Russia’s influence has been declining in this region.
China has tried to take advantage of that, it organized on May 18 and 19 the China plus Central Asia Summit. China is trying to enhance its presence in the region and fill the vacuum created by the reduced sway of Russia. However, while the elites in these countries might not have much of a problem with the growing presence of Beijing, the expanding footprint of China is viewed with great concern and suspicion by the common people in these countries.
What is important to note is that these countries have started looking at options beyond Russia and China. Earlier, Russia was seen as the security provider and China as providing the economic traction and ballast. But now these countries don’t want to have total dependence on one or the other.
In that context, India has great possibilities and opportunities to strengthen its own relations with these five countries of Central Asia. India has taken a number of steps in recent months to further strengthen and expand its partnership with the region.
Other countries too are looking at this opportunity, such as Turkey, Iran which is going to become a member of SCO this year, and the United States and Europe.
In the SCO meets over the years, what distance has India come in achieving its key goals, and what do you think can be the reasonable expectations from today’s summit?
One of the major reasons SCO is important for us is the outreach it provides us to the Central Asian countries. We have ancient historical, cultural and civilisational links with these countries. They are a part of our extended neighbourhood. Until 1991, when they were a part of the Soviet Union, we had very extensive and intensive engagement and partnership with these Soviet republics. But after 1991, because Pakistan does not permit us to have access to these countries through its territory, our engagement came down significantly.
Next is the issue of Afghanistan. Particularly after the US withdrawal in 2021, there are so many terrorist groups operating there. To deal with the whole issue of terrorism and radicalisation, it is necessary for us to stay engaged there, and the SCO allows that.
This time, in addition to the New Delhi Declaration, four separate documents will also be adopted, one on deradicalisation, one on millets, the third is on Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), and the fourth on digitisation. We have also been able to establish two independent working groups, one on traditional medicine and the other on startups and innovation. And this will go to strengthen relations between India and particularly members of the Central Asian countries.
Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia enjoy Observer status in the SCO, while six other countries — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey and Sri Lanka — have Dialogue Partner status.
A similar formulation was used in the Samarkand declaration in 2022, when India refused to sign off on the paragraph.
India has always opposed the BRI, as it says the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor violates India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty
On the issue of terrorism, the Delhi declaration uses similar language, except changing a word from the Samarkand declaration: instead of “ultranationalism”, it uses “chauvinism” this time.
The New Delhi declaration stated, “The member states consider it important to build up joint coordinated efforts by the international community to counter the activities of terrorist, separatist and extremist groups, paying special attention to preventing the spread of religious intolerance, aggressive nationalism, ethnic and racial discrimination, xenophobia, ideas of fascism and chauvinism.”
In another change, the New Delhi declaration uses the word “mercenary goals” instead of “deceptive purposes” used in 2022.
Tuesday’s declaration stated, “The member states note the inadmissibility of interference in the internal affairs of states under the pretext of countering terrorism and extremism, as well as unacceptability of using terrorist, extremist and radical groups for mercenary goals.”
While there was no mention of the Ukraine conflict — like last time in Samarkand, emphasise that the principles of mutual respect for sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of states, equality, mutual benefit, non-interference in internal affairs and non-use of force or threats to use force, are the basis of sustainable development of international relations.
In the Delhi declaration, they used the word “disagreements”, instead of “conflicts” used last time.
IRAN BECOMES NEW MEMBER OF SCO AND NOW NOT 8 BUT 9 MEMBERS IN SCO
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the 23rd Summit of the SCO Council of Heads of State on Tuesday, July 4, 2023.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Iran as the newest member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the virtual summit of the grouping on Tuesday (July 4).
Iran and the SCO
The case for Iran’s full membership of the SCO has been made for several years.
In 2016, the year after Iran signed the nuclear deal (called JCPOA) with Western powers led by the United States, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said, “We believe that after Iran’s nuclear problem was solved and United Nations sanctions lifted, there have been no obstacles left [for Iran’s membership in the SCO].”
However, the US under President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, and the agreement became ineffective. A year later, the US ended all waivers, curbing Iran’s oil exports.
Changing geopolitical landscape
There have been major changes in the geopolitical landscape of late.
The chaotic exit of the US from Afghanistan has opened up space for Chinese influence and investments in the Central Asian region. China has drawn Pakistan more tightly in its strategic embrace, and grown ever more assertive on the global stage.
As the war in Ukraine has raged on, and the West’s relations with Russia have plummeted to their worst-ever levels, Beijing has declared a “no-limits” friendship with Moscow.
Iran has reached out beyond traditional ally Russia. In March this year, it signed a China-brokered deal to re-establish diplomatic relations with its old regional rival, Saudi Arabia. (yemen war with saudi context).
For China, having Iran, with its abundant energy supplies, in the SCO is reassuring as it escalates the tussle with the US. In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year deal for cooperation in areas including oil.
Tightrope walk for India
India faces the task of maintaining a delicate balance as the dynamics of the SCO change.
India and the US have elevated their partnership to unprecedented levels of cooperation and trust, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently returned from an Official State Visit to the US during which the two countries signed important technology and defence agreements.
US President Joe Biden has emphasised the democratic credentials of the two countries, and placed these in opposition to Chinese authoritarianism.
India has also had historical ties with Iran. Commercial ties between India and Iran have been traditionally dominated by Indian imports of Iranian crude oil. Iran was among India’s top energy suppliers until May 2019. Following the end of the US waiver on sanctions on May 2, 2019, India suspended the import of crude from Iran.
KEY TAKEAWAYS OF THE MEETING
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) this week, which was attended by China’s President Xi Jinping, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
hosted by India for the first time,
Iran joined as a member this time, and the process is underway to grant SCO membership to Belarus.
Targeting terror
Hosting the SCO summit could have presented an opportunity for India to engage with countries that are not part of the Western bloc.
At the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting in May, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called Pakistan’s Bilawal Bhutto Zardari a “promoter, justifier and a spokesperson” of the terror industry.
Modi did, however, target both Pakistan and China over issues of terrorism and territorial integrity. With Xi and Shehbaz on the screen, Modi said some countries “use cross-border terrorism as an instrument” of policy, and the SCO should not hesitate to criticise them — there can be “no place for double standards on such serious matters”.
New Delhi has repeatedly flagged Islamabad’s use of terrorist groups as instruments of “state policy”, and Beijing’s blocking the listing of Pakistan-based terrorists at the UN Security Council.
Modi also took on Beijing and Islamabad on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), saying it is essential, while executing connectivity projects, to “respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of SCO member countries.
Pakistan, China
In response to India’s statement, Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif said “the hydra-headed monster of terrorism and extremism, whether performed by individuals, or societies and states must be fought with our full might,” and “any temptation to use it as a cudgel for diplomatic point scoring must be eschewed.”
He also targeted India by saying that “religious minorities should never be demonized in the pursuit of domestic political agendas” and, alluding to Kashmir, said, “the fundamental rights and freedoms must be guaranteed to all, including those under occupation.”
In a clear reference to the US, the Chinese President said: “We must be highly vigilant against external attempts to foment a new Cold War or camp-based confrontation in our region.” Xi also called for a rejection of “interference in our internal affairs” and the instigation of “colour revolutions”, a reference to the popular uprisings in several East European, Central Asian, and Middle Eastern countries over the past couple of decades.
Summit statement
In the New Delhi Declaration issued at the end of the leaders’ summit, India refused to sign off on the paragraph supporting Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India has always opposed the BRI, because the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is part of the Initiative, violates India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
India also did not sign off on the SCO Economic Development Strategy, which had Beijing’s imprint.
On terrorism, the New Delhi Declaration used language similar to that of the Samarkand Declaration, with a single word, “ultranationalism”, replaced with “chauvinism”.
Thus, the New Delhi Declaration said it was important to “build up joint coordinated efforts by the international community” against terrorist groups, “paying special attention to preventing the spread of religious intolerance, aggressive nationalism, ethnic and racial discrimination, xenophobia, ideas of fascism and chauvinism”.
Like in Samarkand, there was no mention of the Ukraine war.
Strategic autonomy
India’s hosting of the SCO summit is seen as a sign of its strategic autonomy, which New Delhi guards zealously. The fact that the SCO summit took place so soon after the PM’s visit to the US, is seen as a key marker of New Delhi’s diplomatic position in the context of the Ukraine war and the US-China polarisation.
While the SCO is not a forum for bilateral disputes, certain bilateral divergences, differences, and disputes have invariably cast a shadow on the grouping.
India has strong ties with Russia, Iran, and the Central Asian countries. While differences with Beijing and Islamabad are likely to pose a challenge, it is important for New Delhi to make sure that its ties with other SCO countries, especially those in Central Asia, get a boost through this grouping.
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